Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 9.736358 11.174551 12.722486 14.508836 16.509755 18.678135 21.201950
2025-12-07 7.717149 9.686268 11.969421 14.797535 18.190652 22.113977 26.975735
2025-12-14 6.492435 8.642306 11.258596 14.649327 18.896854 24.008806 30.589908
2025-12-21 5.334162 7.505709 10.270898 14.007701 18.876873 24.952637 33.045617
2025-12-28 4.842440 7.133271 10.160739 14.393056 20.084844 27.393667 37.393425
2026-01-04 4.392986 6.754029 9.983674 14.641460 21.088093 29.583191 41.488206
2026-01-11 3.906184 6.259904 9.588213 14.533175 21.566014 31.061501 44.669539
2026-01-18 3.483316 5.808542 9.202197 14.387823 21.953243 32.401104 47.686626
2026-01-25 3.160497 5.470789 8.943764 14.390511 22.525270 33.993536 51.089760
2026-02-01 2.907323 5.213351 8.777543 14.504704 23.245908 35.805334 54.852599
2026-02-08 2.636914 4.899047 8.493732 14.410597 23.636397 37.140737 57.966541
2026-02-15 2.391882 4.601075 8.207976 14.285042 23.957571 38.369879 60.952872
2026-02-22 2.211872 4.401256 8.070731 14.393399 24.656516 40.209353 64.949345
2026-03-01 2.102281 4.315280 8.114256 14.794694 25.832602 42.815285 70.196103
2026-03-08 1.902446 4.043262 7.817603 14.605804 26.042529 43.933164 73.204009
2026-03-15 1.655409 3.655744 7.286996 13.979831 25.496099 43.835452 74.315268
2026-03-22 1.583313 3.598981 7.339076 14.359396 26.629079 46.426612 79.710943
2026-03-29 1.498545 3.508023 7.320370 14.609155 27.549034 48.703852 84.680240
2026-04-05 1.374252 3.323001 7.111209 14.500417 27.842990 49.967268 88.058923
2026-04-12 1.257281 3.140640 6.891774 14.355585 28.060377 51.103655 91.259053
2026-04-19 1.167760 3.007917 6.757574 14.358184 28.532784 52.674543 95.214304
2026-04-26 1.097620 2.910748 6.685746 14.472183 29.205728 54.601583 99.814761
2026-05-03 1.012188 2.769312 6.512770 14.378249 29.491413 55.871713 103.347964